Why You Really Don’t Want Your Money in Treasuries if the US Defaults on Its Debt

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A default on U.S. Treasuries is a rare but looming possibility. Here’s what will happen to your investment in Treasuries if the worst comes to pass. 

This $24 trillion U.S. Treasury marketplace serves as the main source of funding for the government and is the largest debt market worldwide. From mortgage rates to global currency values, this Treasury market is the backbone of the economy. In addition, its rock-solid creditworthiness even makes Treasury debt comparable to cash. U.S. Treasuries have long been a safe haven for investors. But what happens if the U.S. defaults on its debt and you have your money invested in Treasuries?

Treasury values would plummet

The first debt limit was imposed by Congress in 1917. It is just like a credit limit for a credit card. The government has hit the debt ceiling, and if Congress doesn’t raise it, then the U.S. would default on its obligations, including Treasuries.

If the U.S. defaults on its debt, the value of Treasuries would plummet, leaving investors with significant losses. This is because the default would undermine confidence in the creditworthiness of the U.S., and investors would start pricing in higher risks. This means that even if you are holding Treasuries that are still earning interest, your investment could be worth significantly less.

Mutual funds that hold government debt, such as Treasury bonds or bills, would be affected if the government defaults on its debt. The impact on your investments will depend on how much government debt the mutual fund holds. If it has a significant amount of government debt in its portfolio, the mutual fund may experience a significant decline in its net asset value.

Treasury payments delayed

In the event of a default, the U.S. government may not be able to make payments on time. This means that even if you are holding Treasuries that are still earning interest, you may not receive payments on time. This could lead to a financial strain if you rely on these payments to cover your living expenses.

There is more than $1 trillion of Treasury debt maturing between May 31 and the end of June, as well as $13.6 billion in interest payments due. If these payments are not made at all or even delayed, it would significantly impact the markets.

Treasuries may need to be sold at a discount

If the U.S. defaults on its debt, yields on Treasuries are likely to increase to compensate for the increased risk. Since the price and yield of a bond are inversely related, the price would decrease. This means that investors who hold Treasuries could face significant losses in value, and may not be able to recover their initial investment.

What can you do to protect yourself?

Fortunately, there are some practical steps you can take to protect yourself in such an event. Diversification is key — spread your investments across different asset classes such as bonds, stocks, and cash, rather than putting all your eggs in one basket. This will help you reduce your overall risk and protect your investments in case of a government default.

Additionally, consider investing in assets that are less likely to be affected by a government default, such as real estate, gold, or other alternative investments. Keeping an eye on economic indicators can also help you make informed investment decisions that keep you protected. Although there’s no foolproof way to completely avoid market fluctuations, taking these steps can help minimize the risk and keep your investments safe.

Make sure your emergency savings account is fully funded, as this can help you weather any kind of financial storm. Finally, focus on reducing debt and lowering your expenses so you have more cushion in case of financial hardship.

Investing in U.S. Treasuries is often seen as a safe bet, but in the event of a default, it may not lead to the best outcome. The value of Treasuries could drop significantly, payments may be delayed, and the global impact could be significant. While there may be opportunities in alternative investments, the key takeaway is the importance of diversification in your investment portfolio. By considering a variety of options, you can spread out your risk and potentially mitigate the impact of any financial crisis.

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