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There’s no way to predict for certain the future of CD rates. But here’s what we can probably expect in 2024.
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Wouldn’t it be great if we all had a crystal ball that told us what the interest rate environment would do? We could figure out the best time to get a mortgage or the best time to buy a car. And of course, we would know exactly when to put all of our money into certificates of deposit (CDs) to maximize our yield.
Unfortunately, that isn’t the case. Nobody knows what interest rates are going to do in the future — not even the people in charge of setting benchmark interest rates. However, we can use the latest economic projections to consider the most likely scenario and what else could happen instead. So here’s what we know (and don’t know) about what CD yields will do in 2024.
Where do CD yields come from?
The short explanation is that CD rates are a combination of three main factors:
The current interest rate environmentThe bank or financial institution that offers themThe maturity term
In other words, when benchmark interest rates rise, CD rates generally tend to rise along with them. However, the rates paid by CDs can vary dramatically between banks.
For example, as I write this, our top 12-month CDs have APYs ranging from 4.25% to 5.65%. The same is true for CDs of other maturity lengths as well. But because the Federal Reserve has raised benchmark interest rates so aggressively in the past couple of years, this range is significantly higher than it was.
When it comes to different maturity lengths, it’s a little tricky to explain, but the general idea is that shorter-term CDs tend to track benchmark interest rates rather closely. The current federal funds rate (the most important interest rate the Fed controls) is set to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, and this is certainly aligned with most of the top 1-year CDs we track.
With longer maturities, there are a lot of economic factors at work, but the simple explanation is that CD yields are a combination of the current interest rate environment and expectations for future interest rate movements. In most environments, longer-maturity CDs tend to have higher yields, since banks typically pay a premium if customers agree to leave their money on deposit for a longer time. But as of Oct. 2023, the range of 5-year CD yields on our top CD list is 3% to 4.85%, with the average yield significantly lower than the average 1-year CD.
This makes sense. According to the latest projections from the policymakers at the Federal Reserve, the benchmark federal funds rate is expected to fall to 4.6% by the end of 2024 and to 3.4% by the end of 2025.
What will CD rates do in 2024?
There’s no way to predict with accuracy what CD rates will do next year. Even the Federal Reserve’s own projections can be very wrong. In fact, the Fed’s projections in Sept. 2021 called for a federal funds rate of just 1% at the end of 2023.
Having said that, the latest projections call for one further quarter-point rate hike by the end of 2023, which would likely push CD yields slightly higher to start 2024. And if the Fed’s projection of a 4.6% federal funds rate proves to be accurate, we could expect 1-year CD rates to gravitate towards that level, with other maturity terms drifting generally lower as well.
However, it’s tough to overemphasize that we don’t know what is going to happen. If inflation proves far more difficult to control than the Fed expects, it’s entirely possible that several more interest rate hikes will be needed and CD yields will be much higher at the end of 2024. On the other hand, there’s the possibility of a recession coming and the need for the Fed to aggressively cut rates if the economy takes a worse downward turn than expected.
The bottom line is that CD rates are higher right now than they’ve been in a long time, and the best course of action is to put your money in CDs that make sense for you now — not to leave your cash on the sidelines in anticipation of rates rising even further.
However, one smart strategy could be to create a CD ladder, which gives you the best of both worlds. If rates end up rising in 2024, you’ll end up with some money to take advantage. And if rates fall, most of your money will be locked in at today’s rates.
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